The market opportunity for PolestarFBS technology is truly breathtaking. As a disruptive technology, it can be expected that after initial adoption it would very quickly can to dominate.
However – for the sake of taking a very conservative view, here is a projection in support of the investment opportunity.
PROJECT POLESTAR ROI MODEL
The achievement of TR9 by the end of YEAR FOUR will have produced a valuable I.P. that can be marketed on a LICENSE basis to manufacturers of a very broad range of machines and vehicles.
Here is a non-exclusive list:-
| Type | Examples | Disc Brake Type | Common Materials | Typical Use Case |
| Auto | Passenger cars, SUVs, pickups, vans, heavy trucks, buses, EVs | Hydraulic disc brakes (vented, solid) | Cast iron, steel, carbon-ceramic (high-end) | Everyday driving, heavy transport, passenger transit |
| Industry | Tractors, bulldozers, excavators, loaders, forklifts, mining haul trucks | Wet multi-disc or dry disc brakes | Steel, sintered alloys, composite friction plates | Heavy-duty load handling, construction, agriculture |
| Rail | High-speed trains, commuter trains, subways, trams | Pneumatic-hydraulic disc brakes | Steel, cast iron, composite friction pads | High-speed deceleration, passenger safety |
| Aero | Commercial jets, private jets, military aircraft, helicopters | Multi-disc carbon brakes | Carbon-carbon, carbon-ceramic composites | High-energy landings, rotor braking |
| Marine | Ships, boats, offshore platforms (cranes, winches, anchor systems) | Hydraulic disc brakes | Steel, stainless steel, bronze alloys | Hoisting, anchoring, safety systems |
| Power | Wind turbines, hydroelectric turbines | Caliper disc brakes | Steel, cast iron, composite pads | Rotor control, emergency stopping |
| Rides | Roller coasters, Ferris wheels, drop towers | Hydraulic or magnetic-assisted disc brakes | Steel, sintered alloys, composites | Ride safety, controlled stops |
| Station- ary | Industrial presses, test rigs, simulators, elevators | Hydraulic/mechanical disc brakes | Steel, cast iron, sintered pads | Precision stopping, safety braking |
The total potential market is therefore absolutely vast – but to create a very conservative model let’s just look at :
Global Motor Vehicle Production
Value Proposition
- Eliminates disc brakes, manufacturers save on:
- Material costs (discs, calipers, pads, hardware)
- Maintenance warranty costs
- Assembly and logistics costs
- Potential performance gains (weight reduction, safety, braking efficiency) could justify a premium.
For context: disc brake components for a passenger car cost roughly $300–$500 per vehicle today. For commercial vehicles / HGVs, it’s higher ($1,000–$2,000+).
Market and Volume
- Passenger cars: ~70 million units/year (projected 2030)
- Light commercial vehicles: ~22 million
- Heavy trucks & buses: ~4–5 million
License fee set low enough to encourage adoption across large volumes, but high enough to capture value.
Industry Benchmarks
- Typical automotive tech licensing fees for high-value components (e.g., advanced safety systems) range $50–$200 per vehicle for passenger cars.
- For groundbreaking tech with high ROI (like Tesla’s regenerative braking patents, or hybrid powertrain licensing), fees can go up to $500–$1,000 per unit for higher-value vehicles.
Conservative License Fee Estimates
| Vehicle Type | Disc Brake Cost (approx) | License Fee | Notes |
| Passenger cars (mass-market) | $300–$500 | $100–$200 | Affordable to encourage adoption, scalable to millions of vehicles |
| Light commercial vehicles | $400–$600 | $150–$250 | Slightly higher; commercial buyers value durability/cost savings |
| Heavy trucks & buses | $1,000–$2,000 | $500–$800 | Larger vehicles have higher braking system costs and justify higher license fees |
Example: If system saves $500 per car, charging $150–$200 license fee captures 30–40% of the value while leaving the rest as incentive for manufacturers to adopt.
Summary:
- Passenger cars: $100–$200 per vehicle
- Light commercial vehicles: $150–$250 per vehicle
- Heavy trucks & buses: $500–$800 per vehicle
Positions our technology as valuable but not prohibitive, enabling widespread adoption while capturing substantial licensing revenue.
Market Share & Growth – Again a very conservative projection
Assuming 0.25% market share in 2030 ramping to 10% in 2035, using the mid-estimate license fees.
Passenger cars: $150 per vehicle. Light commercials: $200 per vehicle. Heavy trucks & buses: $700 per vehicle
Vehicle production (2030 levels):
- Passenger cars: 70 million/year
- Light commercial vehicles: 22 million/year
- Heavy trucks & buses: 5 million/year
Market share ramp-up assumptions:
- 2030: 0.25%
- 2031: 0.5%
- 2032: 1%
- 2033: 2.5%
- 2034: 5%
- 2035: 10%
Licensing Revenue by Vehicle Type
Passenger Cars ($150 per vehicle, 70M units / year)
- 2030: 175,000 × $150 = $26.25 million
- 2031: 350,000 × $150 = $52.5 million
- 2032: 700,000 × $150 = $105 million
- 2033: 1,750,000 × $150 = $262.5 million
- 2034: 3,500,000 × $150 = $525 million
- 2035: 7,000,000 × $150 = $1.05 billion
Light Commercial Vehicles ($200 per vehicle, 22M units / year)
- 2030: 55,000 × $200 = $11 million
- 2031: 110,000 × $200 = $22 million
- 2032: 220,000 × $200 = $44 million
- 2033: 550,000 × $200 = $110 million
- 2034: 1,100,000 × $200 = $220 million
- 2035: 2,200,000 × $200 = $440 million
Heavy Trucks & Buses ($700 per vehicle, 5M units / year)
- 2030: 12,500 × $700 = $8.75 million
- 2031: 25,000 × $700 = $17.5 million
- 2032: 50,000 × $700 = $35 million
- 2033: 125,000 × $700 = $87.5 million
- 2034: 250,000 × $700 = $175 million
- 2035: 500,000 × $700 = $350 million
Cumulative USD Revenue (2030–2035)
- End of 2030: $46 million
- End of 2031: $138 million
- End of 2032: $322 million
- End of 2033: $782 million
- End of 2034: $1.702 billion
- End of 2035: $3.542 billion
Even starting with 0.25% market share, our braking system could generate over $3.5 billion cumulative revenue by 2035 globally in the Motor Vehicle market.
NOTE this model is only for Motor Vehicles and excludes all of the other potential markets